Automated, data-driven volume forecasts laid the foundation for better strategic planning within BMW.

Automotive

enhancing strategic decisions with data analytics   

Client
BMW Group

Project
Analytics leadership / Segment and competitor forecast  

Optimized segment and competitor volume forecasts per car model and market thanks to advanced data analytics that enhance strategic decisions and reduce inefficient cost structures.  

challenges

Segment and competitor volume forecasts play an important role in reducing mismatched supply within the organization. In particular, procurement and production planning are affected. 

However, there were three significant fundamental limitations for these forecasts:

  • Low level of automation: The forecasts were manually created in Excel
  • Number of data sources: Heavy focus was on a single external input source with limited forecast granularity
  • Lack of suitable statistical prognosis model: Only standard linear statistical extrapolation was used.

Furthermore, forecasting granularity and scope was to be increased in the future. But that would have required too much effort in the existing environment.

That’s why rpc developed and implemented a data analytics solution to manage these problems.

approach in detail

1

Definition of business objectives and analytics pilot goals

For the first step of developing a data analytics solution, business understanding was needed to determine business objectives, to assess the situation, to define analytics pilot goals, and to set up a project.

2

Data preparation and statistical modeling

Historical registration and sales data was pre-processed and additional data sources were included. Several kinds of autoregressive (ARIMA, ARIMAX, VAR), exponential smoothing (Holt Winters) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, Regression Tree) were implemented and evaluated to achieve the desired results.

3

Use of open source libraries

Well-established open source libraries were used as efficient, flexible tools for data analysis that can be integrated into existing IT-systems.

created impact

Automated, data-driven volume forecasts lay the foundation for for better planning within the company.

68%

of forecasts have increased their accuracy

16

month timeframe for improved granularity

3

new markets in forecasting scope

service-data-analytics

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let’s get in touch

expert
Dr. Horst-Florian Jaeck is partner at rpc – The Retail Performance Company and heads the Data Analytics division.
Dr. Horst-Florian Jaeck
Partner
about
Dr. Horst-Florian Jaeck leads the data analytics division at rpc. He has several years of consulting experience in various management functions with a focus on customer experience management and big data analytics.
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